The economy is expected to maintain a medium-to-high speed in the second quarter.
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.9%, which was higher than the growth rate of 6.8% in the first quarter. From January to May, the national service industry production index increased by 8.1% year-on-year. As the manufacturing industry accounts for a large proportion of industry, it can be judged by the manufacturing industry and the service industry. The economy is likely to be 6.8% in the first half of the year.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced the first half of the year (July 16), and there are more than 10 days. Ning Jiyu, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview with CCTV recently that since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to maintain steady and steady progress. The medium is in a good development trend. Strong toughness, great potential, and strong stamina.
In the first quarter, the economy grew by 6.8%, and the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter is expected to continue to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth. "Whether in the short-term or in the medium and long term, we have the confidence and the conditions to see the Chinese economy continue to a good fundamental for a long time," he said.
Although the figures for the first half of the year are yet to be announced, according to the June Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the non-manufacturing business activity index, China's economy continued to grow strongly in the first half of the year.
Because China's industrial added value and service industry added value together accounted for about 80% of the entire economy, considering the good agricultural production situation, the economy in the first half of the year was around 6.8%.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, pointed out on July 4 that some data in the first half of this year have somewhat slowed down. However, the resilience of China's economy has increased significantly in recent years, and the growth rate of industrial production is still at a high level in recent years. It is recommended to play a positive fiscal policy role. Appropriately increase the financial support for infrastructure investment, promote the tax reform, significantly reduce the tax burden of the middle class, especially the urban wage earners, and actively respond effectively to external uncertainty.
The economy was stable in the first six months.
The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the figures for the first half of the year on July 16. From the current figures for January-June, the overall economy is steadily improving.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this summer's summer crop is still a bumper year. The main body of summer grain is wheat, and the current harvest situation is good. In 2018, the area of summer grain was 408 million mu, which was slightly lower than that of the previous year, but the overall is a good harvest.
In the manufacturing and service sectors, the production situation is good.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2018, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.4%, which was lower than 0.2 percentage points in the previous month, still higher than the average of 0.3 percentage points in the first half of the year, and continued to be above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises were in the current production and operation. The activity continued to expand steadily and rapidly.
In terms of specific items, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.5% in June, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and still higher than the average of 0.2 percentage points in the first half of the year. The overall manufacturing industry continued to expand.
In June, China's non-manufacturing business activity index (reflecting service industry) was 55.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and higher than the average of 0.2 percentage points in the first half of the year. The non-manufacturing industry maintained a stable and good development momentum.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index fell slightly in June and continued to remain above 51%, indicating that the economy continues to maintain steady growth.
Most of the PMI sub-index fell in June, which may be related to the effect of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, which reduced the June working day by two days from May (PMI is monthly ring data).
“Rejecting this impact, we can think that production, orders, procurement and other activities are generally stable, and the economy is stable and the trend is continuing to develop. It is necessary to pay attention to the decline in export and import orders, which may indicate an increase in the fluctuation of foreign trade import and export situation.” He gave analysis.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that the current development situation of the manufacturing and service industries in January-May is generally good.
In the first half of the year, the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.9%, which was higher than the growth rate of 6.8% in the first quarter. From January to May, the national service industry production index increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points faster than that of January-April, which was the same as the 8.1% growth rate in January-March. As the manufacturing industry accounts for a large proportion of industry, it can be judged by the manufacturing industry and the service industry. The economy is likely to be 6.8% in the first half of the year.
Rapid growth in manufacturing and service industries
According to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, China’s accounting GDP is based on the production method, which is a summary of the accounting for agriculture, the secondary industry, and the service industry. The secondary industry includes industry and construction. Considering that the manufacturing industry accounts for the majority of the industry, when the index of service industry and manufacturing purchasing managers index is good, it can be predicted that the economic development situation is good.
There is a lot of data showing a rapid growth momentum.
For example, the national crude steel output in May was 81.127 million tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative output was 369.859 billion tons, an increase of 5.4%. The monthly crude steel output in May was a new monthly high, up 5.7% from the previous month. Annualized by the number of May, the annual output is close to the level of 1 billion tons, which reflects the optimistic production situation.
Ma Zhongpu, a steel asset expert, pointed out that the current steel production is accelerating because the regular steel mills have tens of millions of tons of demand (originally for the strip steel) after removing the strips last year. Now the profit per ton of crude steel is 600-1000 yuan, the profit is good, and the enterprise accelerates production. However, the current growth rate of infrastructure investment is not high, and such a large output of crude steel is not necessarily digestible.
For some industrial economic digital data is not ideal, it needs a comprehensive analysis.
Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out on July 4 that the industrial profits above designated size in January-May this year were incomparably comparable to those of last year, because the sample has changed. The number of enterprises above designated size has decreased this year, eliminating the fact that industrial enterprises above designated size are Some factors of double counting, from January to May, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.5% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than that of January-April. "(These) profit data is true and reliable, and is actually comparable, reflecting the development of the company's business and coordination with relevant data." He gave an analysis.
It is reported that from the physical quantity index, in January-May, China's industrial electricity consumption increased by 7.7% year-on-year, 1 percentage point faster than that of January-April; cargo volume increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster, of which railway freight volume increased. 7.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points.
From the perspective of corporate taxation, domestic value-added tax increased by 19% year-on-year in the first five months, of which industrial value-added tax increased by 16.6%. According to relevant departmental data, the total profit of state-owned enterprises increased by 20.9% in the first five months of the year, and the growth rate of net profit of non-financial enterprises in the first quarter was 23.6%. The growth rate of industrial profits is matched with these data, and the trend is consistent.
However, the hidden dangers of China's sustainable economic growth are relatively large. For example, the current national housing prices, especially in the second, third and fourth tier cities, are rising rapidly. There is huge uncertainty in external demand.
Qi Feng, director of the Economic System Analysis Office of the Institute of Mathematics and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that attention should be paid to the current high cost of industrial production. As housing prices rise rapidly, the cost of traditional manufacturing is difficult to decline, and the long-term sustainability of the economy may be affected. The impact, the cost of the service industry is also rising.
According to the understanding, due to the current large demand for reducing the local debt risk, it is difficult for local governments to invest in investment, which may make the investment growth rate in the first half of the year may be below 10%, which is about half of the same period last year. At present, the state has repeatedly lowered the bank deposit reserve ratio, but the funds do not enter the realm, but enter the real estate, which is still unfavorable to the long-term development of the economy.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that monetary policy should remain stable and neutral in the second half of the year. Under this premise, it is recommended that monetary policy be appropriately adjusted in a looser direction, moderately increase liquidity, and maintain currency. The market interest rate is at a reasonable level and the market liquidity is reasonably abundant. It is recommended to implement 1-2 targeted RRR cuts during the year to continue to promote the reduction of bank debt costs, and further increase targeted support for small and micro enterprises, “three rural” and inclusive finance, and reduce their financing costs.