March manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rebounded, economic momentum is good
In March, both the manufacturing PMI and the non-manufacturing PMI rebounded as expected. The manufacturing PMI rose to the first quarter high. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was simultaneously above the glory line for the first time this year, indicating that the economic operation is good.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center released data yesterday. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, up from 1.2 percentage points last month, rising to the first quarter high, and the manufacturing expansion accelerated.
“The PMI index increased significantly in March, indicating that with the disappearance of the Spring Festival factor, the characteristics of steady economic growth are further evident,” said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council.
Since December of last year, the PMI index has continued to fall slightly. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, there has been a significant decline in February this year, and the market's fear of economic growth has increased.
Zhang Liqun said that the March data showed that this change was mainly due to seasonal factors, and there was no trending downward trend in economic growth. The main indicators of PMI in March were significantly higher than those in February, indicating that the fluctuations caused by the Spring Festival factors are more obvious. It also shows that the basic characteristics such as stable market demand, active production and operation activities and good expectations since last year are more distinct.
The data shows that in March, the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were all located above the line of glory, and the small business PMI rose by 5.3 percentage points, which was the first time since June 2017 to return to the expansion range.
“According to previous years' experience, small businesses are most affected by seasonality. In March, there is usually a significant rebound. As external demand continues to expand, the role of small businesses is obvious.” Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Research Center, told the Shanghai Securities Journal.
The warming of external demand is also reflected in the PMI sub-indicators. In March, the new export orders index rose by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month to 51.3%, returning to the expansion range. In Liu Xuezhi's view, the external demand situation is better, driving export orders, and exports are expected to maintain growth momentum.
Chen Zhongtao, deputy chief economist of China Logistics Information Center, also said that in general, the first quarter of this year has continued to develop in a stable and stable manner. On the one hand, economic growth remains stable, combined with PMI judgment, GDP growth is expected to be about 6.8% in the first quarter; on the other hand, the inherent quality of economic development is improving.
In line with the manufacturing PMI trend, the non-manufacturing PMI also rebounded, rising by 0.2 percentage points from March to 54.6% in March.
Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that non-manufacturing PMI has stabilized at more than 54% for seven consecutive months, indicating that non-manufacturing continues to maintain a relatively fast development trend. Emerging service industries such as finance, air transport, express delivery and information services are developing at a good momentum, and innovation drives the drive for high-quality development.
From the perspective of industry categories, in March, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal express, telecommunications, Internet software, banking, securities, insurance and other industries were all at a high boom rate of 55% and above, showing strong performance. Expanding momentum.
Liu Xuezhi said that both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rebounded as expected in March, indicating that the current economic performance is good. However, he also stressed that Sino-US trade friction may cause uncertainty in the future export situation and have an impact on the PMI trend, which requires continuous attention.