Forward-looking Industrial Research Institute: Analysis Of The Current Status And Development Trend Of China's Tower Crane Industry Market In 2018. Overseas Markets Have Gradually Become New Opportunities For Development.
Tower crane enters the period of renewal and demand release
The service life of construction cranes such as tower cranes is generally 6-10 years. At present, the last peak period of the construction machinery industry (2007-2011) has been 8 years to 12 years, and the industry has entered a period of concentrated release of demand for replacement. In 2 years to 3 years, the updated demand space will continue to expand. In addition, thanks to the promotion of new assembly-type construction technology, tower crane sales will maintain a high growth in 2019. It is expected that the number of tower cranes in the 2019 and 2020 will be 44.12 and 453,100, respectively, of which the proportion of large tower cranes above 200 tons will increase from the current 0.97% to 13.00% in 2025.
Since the 1980s, China's tower crane industry has developed rapidly. In 2002, China became the first country in the world with a tower crane output exceeding 10,000 units. In terms of total production, China has become a major producer of civilian tower cranes in the world and one of the major demand markets for tower cranes in the world. In 2009, under the influence of the 4 trillion stimulus policy, the tower crane manufacturing industry has rapidly expanded its production capacity after 2008 and adopted aggressive sales policies such as zero down payment and deferred payment. The sales volume has soared.
According to the statistics of the “China Tower Crane Industry Production and Demand Forecast and Transformation and Upgrade Analysis Report” released by the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the sales volume of the tower crane industry in China has reached 31020 units in 2007. In 2013, the sales volume of China's tower crane industry grew to a peak, reaching 63,684 units, an increase of 27.87%. According to the "China Construction Machinery Industry Yearbook" statistics, in the "post 4 trillion" era in 2013-2016, China's tower crane sales fell by a cliff-like decline, from 63,700 highs in 2013 to 0.7 million in 2016. In 2017, the industry began to recover, and the industry market sales rebounded to 11,000 units. In 2018, there was a shortage of supply. According to the Prospective Industrial Research Institute, the sales volume of the tower crane industry in China was further rebounded to around 12,800 units in 2018.
The service life of construction cranes such as tower cranes is generally 6-10 years. At present, the last peak period of the construction machinery industry (2007-2011) has been 8 years to 12 years, and the industry has entered a period of concentrated release of demand for replacement. In 2 years to 3 years, the updated demand space will continue to expand. In addition, benefiting from the promotion of new assembly-type construction technology, it is expected that the sales of tower cranes will maintain a high growth in 2019.
Benefit from prefabricated buildings, large and medium-sized tower cranes are expected to grow
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, as of the end of 2015, the number of tower cranes in China has reached 460,000 units, reaching a peak in recent years, with a downline of 425,000 units, reaching the peak in recent years. By the end of 2017, China’s tower cranes have been on the line at 42.7. Ten thousand sets of tower cranes have a capacity of 394,000 units. It is expected that the number of tower cranes in the 2019 and 2020 will be 44.12 and 453,100, respectively, of which the proportion of large tower cranes above 200 tons will increase from the current 0.97% to 13.00% in 2025.
In recent years, the development of fabricated buildings has significantly increased the demand for large tower cranes. The weight of prefabricated components of prefabricated buildings is much higher than that of traditional building components, and the load bearing capacity of tower cranes will increase, and the tower crane market will usher in structural adjustment. The development goal of prefabricated buildings is clear. According to the relevant plans of the Ministry of Housing and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the proportion of new-scale buildings in the country will reach 15% in 2020, and by 2026, the proportion will reach 30%. The demand for large tower cranes will increase rapidly.
According to the proportion of prefabricated buildings occupying 30% of new buildings in 2026, the newly-built area of prefabricated buildings in China reached 737 million square meters in 2026, and the corresponding demand for large and medium-sized tower cranes was about 92,100 units, compared with the huge ones. At present, the demand for large and medium-sized tower cranes that can be used in prefabricated buildings in China is less than 20,000, and the demand for suitable tower cranes is more than 70,000. According to the forward-looking perspective, the number of tower cranes in the 2019 and 2020 will be 44.12 and 453,100 respectively, of which the proportion of large tower cranes above 200 tons will increase from the current 0.97% to 13.00% in 2025.
Overseas markets have gradually become important new opportunities in the tower crane industry
According to the statistics of the Construction Engineering Machinery Branch of the China Engineering Industry Association, in recent years, the export value of tower cranes has gradually exceeded 30% of the total sales of the industry. Chinese tower cranes have gone abroad to participate in major projects in the world and fully demonstrated China to the world. The strength and charm of manufacturing.
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the number of tower crane exports in China has maintained a relatively high level in recent years, showing a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. In 2017, the number of tower crane exports in China was 2,407; in the first quarter of 2018, the number of tower cranes in China was 469. station.
According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in recent years, the export value of tower cranes in China has increased first and then decreased, and the overall level has remained at a relatively high level. In 2017, the export value of tower cranes in China was 329.98 million US dollars. In the first quarter of 2018, China’s tower crane exports The amount is $74.1 million. It is worth noting that in 2017, Xugong Tower Crane's market share in foreign markets has been significantly improved, with total exports approaching 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119%. Xugong tower crane exports accounted for 30% of the total sales in 2017, of which nearly 80% of the equipment was exported to the countries along the “Belt and Road”. ”
East China's sales revenue share is the largest
From the perspective of the proportion of sales revenue in various regions, the sales revenue in East China accounted for a large advantage in 2018, accounting for 34.74%; followed by Central China, Southwest China and South China, accounting for 14.81% and 14.03% respectively. 13.97%; the proportion of sales revenue in Northeast China and North China was 5.70% and 10.15% respectively. Referring to the construction machinery of listed companies, from the geographical distribution of revenue, the revenue generated by the East China region for the company in the past years accounted for the largest proportion. In 2016 and 2017, the revenue generated by construction machinery in East China was 485 million yuan and 663 million yuan respectively, accounting for 35.27% and 36.22% of the total revenue of the year.
That is to say, the demand for tower crane industry in China is mainly distributed in economically developed regions. The main reason is that the region has a relatively fast economic development, and there are many projects for construction projects. The market demand is large. It is worth noting that in recent years, the Northeast region, The proportion of tower crane sales revenue in North China decreased significantly, and the proportion of tower crane sales revenue in South China and Central China increased significantly.
The tower crane rental scale is broad, the leading enterprises are actively deployed, and the industry concentration is expected to increase.
The development of the tower crane market is greatly affected by the construction environment of the local construction industry and the real estate industry. In recent years, the Chinese government has actively invested in boosting the domestic economy, which has greatly promoted the development of China's construction industry and real estate industry, and the development of the tower crane industry. It provides a rare opportunity for development and also drives the development of the tower crane rental market.
According to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, as of the end of 2017, the number of tower cranes in China is about 39.4-42.7 million units. At present, construction machinery owns 10%-30% of its own cranes, and the remaining 70%-90% It is obtained by social leasing; the average monthly rent of China's tower cranes in 2013-2017 is about 24,500 yuan, if it is calculated by the lease term of 8 months per year (2015 to 2017, the annual average tower crane utilization of Pangyuan Leasing, the leading enterprise in the industry) The rate is on the rise, 60.1%, 69.6% and 71.7% respectively, so the market size of China's tower crane leasing is about 64.366 billion yuan.
From the perspective of enterprise income, after nearly 20 years of rapid development, the tower crane leasing industry has initially formed four leading enterprises with an annual output value of more than 250 million yuan, including Pangyuan Leasing, Dafeng, Zizhuhui and Zhenghe Leasing. The total revenue of the enterprises in the total output value of the industry is less than 5%, and the industry development level is only close to the mid-1980s. The largest domestic Pangyuan Leasing in 2017 had revenue of 1.328 billion yuan, with a market share of less than 2%, while the United States ranked first with a combined leasing income of US$6.64 billion and a market share of 15%. Considering China's infrastructure scale, China's construction machinery rental market will be even larger than the United States, which means that China's construction machinery rental market, especially leading enterprises, has great development potential.
According to industry research, the tower crane with a single value of about 1 million yuan, if the leasing company purchases according to the full payment model, assume that the equipment rental price is 3.5% of its purchase price, the equipment utilization rate is 80%, and the gross profit margin is 40%. According to this calculation, the investment recovery period of a single device is 7-8 years. Even if you purchase under the financial leasing model, the investment payback period will take 4-5 years. At present, the device iteration speed reaches 2-3 years, and the future may be shortened to 1-2 years. If it is less than 2 years, it needs to be updated. If a single device is only rented in a single area, the risk of return on investment is extremely high.
Therefore, only large-scale tower crane leasing companies with strong financial strength and national or even global strategic layout are able to use the uneven development of prefabricated buildings in different regions to carry out equipment transfer across the country and even globally, and then digest a single device because of iterative acceleration belt. The return on investment period is too short.
For some small and medium-sized tower crane leasing companies with small scale, insufficient financial strength and limited coverage, in the era of rapid development of fabricated buildings, they will fall into the dilemma of “buy and not buy” and will eventually be eliminated from the market. The differentiation of “survival of the fittest” between enterprises will become more and more obvious, which will help the industry leading enterprises led by Pangyuan Leasing to become bigger and stronger, expand market share, and help the industry to further increase its concentration.
List of top 10 global crane manufacturers in the list of three Chinese companies
From the perspective of domestic enterprises, at present, Zoomlion Tower Crane continues to maintain its absolute leading position in the country; followed by Xugong Group and Yongmao Holdings, occupying the second echelon; Zhejiang Jianshe, Chuanjian, Shenyang Sanyo, Guangxi Jianji, Zhejiang Huba Jiangxi Zhongtian, Fangyuan Group, Jiangyan Company, Hengsheng Construction Machinery, etc. occupy the third echelon of the industry.
From the perspective of global enterprises, the 2018 global tower crane manufacturer's top 10 list has not changed from the previous session. The 10 companies are Manitowoc-Potain, Liebherr, Zoomlion, Fawford. , Wolf, Comanche, Terex, Xugong Group, Yongmao Holdings and RAIMONDI. However, in terms of rankings, the top position of the list was Manitowoc-Potain, Liebherr dropped by one, ranking second; the Fuffol Group and Komansa rose by 2 places respectively due to outstanding performance. And 4, divided into 4th and 6th. Overall, among the top 10 tower crane manufacturers in the world, European and American companies are still the main force, and the top two Manitowoc - Potain and Liebherr, tower crane sales are more than 600 million US dollars, far higher For other companies. Among the Top 10 list, there are still only three manufacturing companies from China – Zoomlion, Xugong Group and Yongmao Holdings.
anding performance. And 4, divided into 4th and 6th. Overall, among the top 10 tower crane manufacturers in the world, European and American companies are still the main force, and the top two Manitowoc - Potain and Liebherr, tower crane sales are more than 600 million US dollars, far higher For other companies. Among the Top 10 list, there are still only three manufacturing companies from China – Zoomlion, Xugong Group and Yongmao Holdings.