In 2018, The Construction Machinery Industry Is “too Hot”. The 2019 Can Be Expected: The Leading Stocks Have More Advantages.

According to the statistics of the Mining Machinery Branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises that were included in the statistics from January to December 2018 sold a total of 203,420 types of excavation machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 45.0%. Domestic sales (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in the domestic market were 184,190 units, a year-on-year increase of 41.1%. The export sales volume was 19,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 97.5%.

In terms of loaders, in 2018, the loader only experienced a year-on-year decline in sales in February and September, and the other months achieved an increase. The cumulative sales for the year exceeded 119,000 units, an increase of 22.0%.

According to institutional analysis, the fundamentals of the construction machinery sector remain strong at this stage, and the growth rate of subsequent infrastructure construction is expected to rebound. In 2019, the sales volume of excavators is expected to exceed 210,000 units, a record high.

In 2018, the construction machinery industry was "too hot"

According to a report on the 17th of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, on the 16th, it was learned from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association that in 2018, the sales volume of construction machinery products such as excavators and loaders maintained double-digit growth, and it is expected to maintain its growth momentum in 2019.

Lu Ying, deputy secretary-general of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said that the operation of the construction machinery industry in 2018 can be summarized simply by the words "too hot".

Lu Ying said that due to the low operating base in 2016, it showed a very high growth in 2017 and 2018. In 2017, the total number of equipment production in the whole industry increased by 45.7%, and from January to November 2018, it increased by 27.2%. From January to November 2018, the industry's operating income increased by 12% year-on-year, exceeding the target of 20% year-on-year growth of 2018, reaching the highest level in history.

Regarding the reasons for the rapid growth of the main products of construction machinery, Lu Ying summarized the following aspects: First, natural growth, that is, the growth of possession, and the increase in export products; second, the current user field is in the period of inventory update. Some equipments have expired and need to be replaced with new equipment. This cycle will last for 3-5 years. Third, the national policy projects will be driven. Fourth, the upgrading of the user sector will drive the upgrading of construction machinery. Higher equipment.

Infrastructure growth is expected to continue to rise

Ping An Securities believes that for the 2019 excavator sales judgment, it is still necessary to combine the downstream situation of real estate and infrastructure, and the direction of monetary policy and fiscal policy, etc., to be further observed.

Pacific Securities pointed out that according to the data on the start-up data and industry exchanges, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment may decline next year, and the overall downward pressure on the economy is large. In the short term, infrastructure investment as a counter-cyclical stabilizer is still inseparable. In late December, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed an active fiscal policy to increase efficiency, implement a larger tax cut and reduce fees, and increase the scale of local government special bonds. At the end of December, the National People's Congress authorized the State Council to issue 1.39 trillion yuan in advance. In 2019, the local government added a new debt limit. Recently, the approval of infrastructure projects represented by rail transit has been significantly accelerated, and the infrastructure sector has been stepped up. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure construction will continue to rise.

Zhongtai Securities said that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to bottom out and the demand for real estate is not pessimistic. (1) The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2018 will adjust the “counter-cyclical adjustment”, and the steady growth of the series of policy signals will be strengthened. Under the assistance of the infrastructure “complementing the short board” (strengthening the construction of the western region + rural revitalization) and the speeding up of the issuance of local special bonds, the infrastructure sector will gradually stabilize and benefit construction machinery. The infrastructure growth rate is expected to be 5-10% in 2019. (2) The growth rate of national real estate development investment completion in 2018 is expected to stabilize at around 10%. The sales area and sales of commercial housing continued to record new highs. Real estate investment is not pessimistic in the future: The research report believes that real estate development investment in 2019 is still likely to maintain a positive growth trend, with a year-on-year growth of 0-5%.

Institution: Leading stocks have advantages

Dongguan Securities believes that the recovery of the construction machinery industry is expected to enter the second half in 2019. The continued recovery momentum is sufficient, and the overall industry cycle is expected to be extended. With the continuous increase in concentration, leading enterprises will have an advantage in this round of recovery.

Zhongtai Securities believes that the sales volume of excavators in 2019 is expected to exceed 210,000 units, a slight increase year-on-year and a record high. Optimistic about the domestic host factory faucet and parts faucet, recommended: Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Machinery, Liugong, Hengli Hydraulic, Eddie Precision. Sany Heavy Industry, Xugong Group and Liugong are among the top 3 domestic excavator domestic brands. Hengli Hydraulic and Eddie Precision are equipped with hydraulic cylinders and pump valves, breakers and hydraulic pump valves for excavators. Growth.

BOC International pointed out that under the background of “stable infrastructure construction”, the adjustment of policy will be conducive to the continuation of the demand for construction machinery industry. It is judged that the sales volume of excavators is still at a high level in 2019, and it is expected to exceed 180,000 units. ~10% between. Recommended leading companies, including the main engine Sany Heavy Industry, and the core parts company Hengli Hydraulic, pay attention to Liugong, Xugong Machinery.

Shen Wanhongyuan said that in 2019, concrete machinery is expected to grow with the sales of mobile cranes. It is recommended that Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd., a global concrete machinery leader, provide safety mats with high profit certainty. The revenue and profit elasticity of concrete machinery in 2019 is large, and the crane enters. During the harvest period, the market share of the excavator faucet is still rising, and the export volume is hedging against the domestic cycle.) Focusing on the advantage of the concrete machinery company Zoomlion (strategic return to the main business of construction machinery, historical burdens continue to clear, concrete Machinery and crane machinery accounted for a high proportion of profits. In 2019, services such as excavation and aerial work platforms provided marginal increments.

Haitong Securities said that statically, the rainy and snowy weather in winter in 2018-2019 affected the construction of construction projects, and the slowdown in real estate investment and mineral mining, and the release of a large number of new machines to the market also diluted to some extent. The utilization rate of stock equipment, but dynamically, the reverse stimulus cycle has been opened, and the infrastructure investment from the central to the local is expected to stabilize and rebound. Especially after the Lunar New Year, the project starts to be expected, and the currency tends to be loose for projects with strong financial attributes. The machinery industry also has a certain stimulating effect. The research report still expects that the sales of 1H excavators in 2019 are not bad. Although the industry has bid farewell to the rapid recovery period but is entering a stable range, the best investment strategy is still to optimize the industry with strong cycle growth attributes. Chain quality company, continue to recommend Hengli Hydraulic, Zhejiang Dingli, Sany Heavy Industry.